Fraud continues to evolve, and so must the methods we use to detect it.
In today’s fast-moving environment, organisations need continuous, intelligent systems that not only spot known threats but also flag suspicious patterns before they escalate. The good news? Technology has caught up. The challenge? Knowing how to use it effectively.
For compliance, audit, and risk professionals, fraud detection is no longer just about catching wrongdoing after the fact. It’s about building systems that prevent it from happening in the first place.
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Understanding fraud in today’s landscape
Fraud is pervasive, costly, and increasingly sophisticated. According to PwC’s Global Economic Crime Survey, nearly half of surveyed organisations experienced some form of fraud in the past two years[1].
AI-generated deepfakes, synthetic identities, and insider collusion can all bypass outdated controls. And with more digital processes come more attack surfaces. Organisations must move from reactive investigation to proactive detection, with tools that learn, adapt, and alert in real time.
Modern fraud detection methods
Predictive analytics
Predictive analytics uses historical data and statistical modelling to forecast potential future fraud. By identifying trends and patterns in past fraudulent activity, these models can assign risk scores to transactions or behaviours in real time.
This is particularly effective in high-volume environments like banking, insurance, retail, and procurement, where traditional controls can’t keep up with transaction speed.
For example, PayPal’s fraud detection engine leverages predictive analytics to assess the risk of every transaction by analysing over 1,000 data points, from IP address to transaction velocity. This system is credited with helping PayPal keep fraud losses below industry averages while maintaining a seamless user experience[2].
AI and machine learning
AI and machine learning (ML) are redefining the fraud detection landscape. These technologies can analyse millions of data points in seconds, identify previously unseen patterns, and adapt to new types of fraud without human intervention.
Benefits include:
- Dynamic anomaly detection: Catching unusual patterns in location, frequency, transaction value, or login behaviour.
- Continuous learning: Updating models as new fraud types emerge, without manual rule changes.
- Analyst support: Prioritising high-risk alerts and reducing false positives, freeing human analysts for higher-value investigations.
“AI-based tools reduce false positives by up to 30%, helping us focus on the alerts that really matter.” – Fraud Analytics Lead, Top 10 US Bank (McKinsey, 2023)[3]
Mastercard’s Decision Intelligence platform uses AI to score every transaction based on real-time and historical data. In 2022, the platform helped reduce the number of false declines and enhanced fraud detection rates by over 50%.[4]
However, AI is only as good as the data it learns from. Poor-quality or biased datasets can lead to blind spots or over-flagging, particularly for newer customers or atypical transaction histories.
Behavioural analytics
Behavioural analytics focuses on identifying subtle shifts in user or employee behaviour that might indicate fraud. Instead of relying on static rules, it builds a profile of normal behaviour, such as when and where a person typically logs in, how they navigate a system, or which functions they access.
Any deviation from that baseline triggers further scrutiny. For example, an employee who usually accesses the procurement portal during business hours from a corporate laptop suddenly logs in at 2:00 a.m. from a personal device and downloads the full vendor register. Behavioural analytics flags this as a high-risk deviation, even if no technical control is breached.
This approach is especially useful in detecting insider threats or credential misuse. Behavioural analytics is also used in customer-facing scenarios to detect identity theft or account takeover: for instance, if a user suddenly changes shipping addresses, resets their password, and makes a high-value purchase, all within minutes.
Real-time monitoring
Real-time monitoring tools enable organisations to detect and respond to fraud as it occurs. Rather than waiting for end-of-month reviews or delayed alerts, these systems continuously scan transactions, user activity, and system changes, flagging anomalies for immediate action.
Core features of strong real-time monitoring systems include:
- Customisable alert thresholds based on transaction risk profiles
- Integration with SIEM or case management tools for automated triage
- Dashboards with heatmaps and risk scores for visual situational awareness
For example, Amazon’s fraud prevention team monitors millions of transactions daily using real-time systems. Their systems automatically block suspicious logins or payments and escalate high-risk actions to investigators in under five seconds[5]. Real-time alerting can also trigger control responses like temporarily locking a user account, requiring multi-factor authentication, or quarantining a transaction until verified.
Identity verification technologies
Identity verification is foundational to any modern fraud strategy. It ensures that only legitimate users gain access to systems or initiate sensitive transactions.
Common methods include:
- Multi-factor authentication (MFA): Combining something you know (password), have (device), and are (biometrics).
- Biometric authentication: Facial recognition, fingerprints, or voice analysis.
- Device and IP fingerprinting: Assessing the device profile, location, and network to identify suspicious access attempts.
“We’ve seen a 70% drop in credential-based fraud since implementing biometric verification for high-value transactions.” – Chief Security Officer, Global Payments Firm (Forrester, 2023)[6]
It is good practice to layer verification techniques to reduce the risk of circumvention. For example, combining MFA with geo-location rules and behavioural baselining creates strong barriers against impersonation or unauthorised access.
Additionally, modern identity systems can incorporate third-party data (e.g. ID verification services or government records) to validate identities at onboarding, which is crucial for industries like fintech, education, and healthcare.
Challenges and limitations
Even with advanced technology, fraud detection isn’t foolproof. Organisations face three persistent challenges: false positives, evolving fraud tactics, and regulatory constraints.
False positives
AI and machine learning are powerful, but they’re not perfect. One of the most common issues is false positives: legitimate transactions or behaviours mistakenly flagged as suspicious. In some sectors, false positives can account for over 90% of fraud alerts, overwhelming analysts and frustrating customers.
“For every confirmed case of fraud, we were reviewing 10-15 false alerts. It burned out our team and delayed legitimate payments.” – Compliance Officer, Mid-tier Bank (via ACFE report, 2023)[7]
To reduce false positives:
- Retrain models regularly with updated datasets
- Adjust thresholds by customer segment or transaction type
- Implement review stages with human analysts for borderline cases
The balance lies in sensitivity: too low, and fraud slips through; too high, and user experience suffers.
Evolving threats
Fraudsters innovate quickly, sometimes faster than detection systems can adapt. AI-generated synthetic identities, deepfake impersonations, and adaptive phishing attacks are making traditional rule-based systems obsolete.
The 2023 CrowdStrike Global Threat Report highlighted a 95% year-over-year increase in identity-based attacks, often bypassing conventional security by mimicking legitimate behaviour[8]. To stay ahead, organisations must:
- Continuously update fraud detection models.
- Collaborate across teams (fraud, IT, compliance) to monitor new trends.
- Use threat intelligence feeds to refine internal controls.
Regulatory constraints
Modern fraud systems often rely on user data (location, device type, behavioural metrics) to detect suspicious activity. But data privacy regulations like GDPR (EU) and CCPA (California) set clear limits on what can be collected, stored, or shared. This creates a tension: the more data you collect, the better you can detect fraud, but the higher your compliance risk.
To navigate this:
- Build fraud detection systems using privacy-by-design principles.
- Collect only the data necessary for fraud prevention, with clear user consent.
- Engage legal and compliance teams early when evaluating new tools.
Best practices for fraud prevention
Build a multi-layered defence
Effective fraud prevention blends technology, training, and governance. No single solution is enough.
Multi-layered tactics include:
- Deploying technical controls like 2FA, encryption, and device fingerprinting
- Enforcing segregation of duties and access controls
- Embedding approval workflows with documented evidence trails
Train the front line
Employees are often the first to notice something unusual. Regular fraud awareness training, coupled with clear escalation channels, builds a culture of vigilance. This includes establishing confidential whistleblower processes.
Conduct regular reviews
Annual fraud risk assessments, internal audits, and penetration testing help identify gaps before they’re exploited. These should be tailored to your sector and updated as systems evolve.
Conclusions and next steps for your organisation
Fraud detection today is no longer just a defensive exercise, it’s a proactive strategy that integrates advanced analytics, real-time monitoring, and strong governance. As threats evolve and technologies advance, so too must your approach.
The most effective fraud prevention programs don’t rely on a single technique. They combine layered controls, intelligent systems, and well-trained teams to detect and respond to fraud before it causes damage. From predictive analytics to behavioural monitoring and identity verification, the tools are available. The key is bringing them together in a structured, coordinated framework.
That’s where Protecht becomes essential, giving you a single place to link risks to controls, automate testing, track incidents, and visualise patterns across your organisation. Whether you're trying to reduce false positives, improve real-time response, or meet regulatory obligations, Protecht helps you stay ahead of fraud without compromising on usability or oversight.
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References
[1] PwC Global Economic Crime and Fraud Survey 2024 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/forensics/economic-crime-survey.html
[2] PayPal Engineering Blog:https://medium.com/paypal-tech/how-paypal-uses-machine-learning-to-fight-fraud-5522db8df60d
[3] McKinsey on Risk & Compliance: AI in Financial Crime: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/using-ai-to-fight-financial-crime
[4] Mastercard Newsroom: https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2022/ai-decision-intelligence/
[5] Amazon Fraud Prevention Case Study: https://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/amazon-fraud-detection/
[6] Forrester Research on Identity Verification Trends: https://go.forrester.com/blogs/biometric-authentication-is-on-the-rise/
[7] ACFE Report to the Nations 2023: https://www.acfe.com/report-to-the-nations/2022/
[8] CrowdStrike Global Threat Report 2023: https://www.crowdstrike.com/global-threat-report/